Evaluate Outcomes

Analyzing decisions using probability in real-world situations.

Mapped to CCSS Section# HSS.MD.B.5a, HSS.MD.B.5b, HSS.MD.B.6, HSS.MD.B.7

Weigh the possible outcomes of a decision by assigning probabilities to payoff values and finding expected values. Find the expected payoff for a game of chance. For example, find the expected winnings from a state lottery ticket or a game at a fast-food restaurant. Evaluate and compare strategies on the basis of expected values. For example, compare a high-deductible versus a low-deductible automobile insurance policy using various, but reasonable, chances of having a minor or a major accident. Use probabilities to make fair decisions (e.g., drawing by lots, using a random number generator). Analyze decisions and strategies using probability concepts (e.g., product testing, medical testing, pulling a hockey goalie at the end of a game).